08 August 2006
What seems like a lifetime ago, I told a friend that invading Iraq was a disaster. He argued about "weapons of mass destruction" and I said let them have them. This sent all sort of shockwaves until I explained my reasoning. To preemptively invade was a betrayal of everything that the United State represented. To do so before Afghanistan was handled was the height of arogance. History said that entering Iraq without overwhelming world support and manpower would be a disaster that destabilized the whole of the Middle East.
Unfortunately for thousands upon thousands of lives, I get to say "I told you so". Now it becomes a matter of how to get out without a civil war that will mean even more deaths. Putting on my prognosticators hat, the only way out is to divide Iraq into three or more parts.
Kurdistan exists only as a fiction right now even if they do advertise on TV as "The Other Iraq". They are secular, wealthy with oil and ready to join the modern world even if Turkey as a NATO member objects.
The Sunni and Shiites need to divide along religious lines either by joining surrounding countries or simply dividing what is left of the country with some agreement as to oil revenues.
Anyone who knows anything about The Ottoman Empire from the 1600's through to it's final breakup after WWII knows that Iraq is not natural geographically or socially, and it is time for it to come to an end.
We can only hope that someone will point this out to the President before the whole of the Middle East goes up in flames and even more lives are wasted by this ill advised adventure.